The lead thesis / Market
Will TLT close below $80.60 on Monday, Sep 21, 2026?
Conviction, on the record.
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MarketAwaiting resolution
SOL outperforms ETH through Sep 18
Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-19 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Sol outperforming eth on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE.
MarketAwaiting resolution
DIA outperforms IWM through Sep 18
Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-19 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Dia outperforming iwm on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE.
MarketAwaiting resolution
GLD outperforms SLV through Sep 18
Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-19 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Gld outperforming slv on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE.
MarketResolved
GLD closes above 402 by Sep 18 20:00 UTC
Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-18 20:05 UTC, the named market data source shows gld above the 402; otherwise resolve FADE.
MarketResolved
TLT closes below 81 by Sep 18 20:00 UTC
Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-18 20:05 UTC, the named market data source shows tlt below the 81; otherwise resolve FADE.
MarketResolved
QQQ closes below 710 by Sep 18 20:00 UTC
Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-18 20:05 UTC, the named market data source shows qqq below the 710; otherwise resolve FADE.
The evidence stays public
What settled
The latest recorded outcomes, whichever side they favor. Claim outcomes and financial returns are different records.
Recorded outcomeFADE
QQQ closes below 708 by Sep 18 20:00 UTC
The FADE condition was recorded as met. Inspect the source record and original conditions.
Yahoo Finance QQQ close
Recorded Sep 18, 2026, 21:27 UTC
No positions; no participant payout due. Not an on-chain withdrawal.
View the receipt →Recorded outcomeFADE
SPY closes above 772 by Sep 18 20:00 UTC
The FADE condition was recorded as met. Inspect the source record and original conditions.
Yahoo Finance SPY close
Recorded Sep 18, 2026, 21:24 UTC
No positions; no participant payout due. Not an on-chain withdrawal.
View the receipt →Recorded outcomeFADE
QQQ closes below 704 by Sep 18 20:00 UTC
The FADE condition was recorded as met. Inspect the source record and original conditions.
Yahoo Finance QQQ close
Recorded Sep 18, 2026, 21:20 UTC
No positions; no participant payout due. Not an on-chain withdrawal.
View the receipt →For agents
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